232 percent more online orders expected

Even after Black Friday, the number of online orders is expected to remain high. In the last days before Sinterklaas (2 to 4 December) order volume drops and is 50.4% lower than the daily average between 24 November and 1 December. Yet that is still 25 percent above the annual average. On 5 December and the day after, a further decline of five percent is expected. A final parcel peak occurs just before Christmas, on 22 December, when the last purchases are made. At that point, there are expected to be 45 percent more orders than average in 2025. The year will then most likely end with a sharp drop in the number of online orders, namely a decrease of forty percent during Christmas.

The average delivery time is not always the best delivery time to display in the checkout. During the peak period around Black Friday, it turns out that the average delivery time of one day only applies to fifty percent of shipments, while 95 percent of parcels are delivered only within three to four days. In addition, different sectors show strong differences in peak pressure: the book sector records 22.5 percent more orders on Black Friday, while electronics and accessories show an increase of 27 percent on Cyber Monday. This is possibly a consequence of opting for a high‑impact peak strategy, in which companies deliberately aim for maximum order pressure on a single day.

Jeroen Gehlen, co-founder of Wuunder: “The forecasts show that order peaks are emerging increasingly early in Black Friday week and that consumers are planning online purchases more consciously at the moment when the discount is most attractive. E‑commerce managers can respond by starting earlier with activating promotional campaigns around offers and by ensuring that fulfilment and transport processes have already been scaled up before Black Friday. This can be done by replenishing stocks based on expected sales and deploying extra warehouse capacity. Parties working with a longer deal period spread the pressure and prevent the peak from concentrating on a single day. Those who nonetheless opt for a high‑impact strategy must ensure that logistics are tightly organised and can handle the peak. Finally, it is also extremely important that delivery is in order. For example, add the option of deferred shipping in the checkout. That way you spread deliveries and do not have to make promises about next day delivery. This means consumers are not only happy with a good deal, but also with a smooth delivery.”

The data is based on orders at Paazl and Wuunder and concerns domestic shipments in the Netherlands. The data is not based on returns and only concerns B2C shipments.