Quarter of parcels not on time

However, the parcel rush won't only be happening on Black Friday itself. More and more (online) retailers are choosing to extend the discount period before and after Black Friday. Looking at the entire Black Friday week, expected delays per day vary between 13.8 and 22.3 percent. Cyber Monday appears to be the day with the highest delivery peak. Due to the combination of orders from the Black Friday weekend still being processed and new orders on Cyber Monday, a quarter of parcels (24%) are expected to be delayed. These figures are significantly higher than the 7.6 percent delay on an average day this year.

Many Dutch people use the discount period to do their Sinterklaas shopping. However, it's important to do this in time to ensure that Pakjesavond doesn't end in disappointment. The analysis shows that consumers should ideally use December 2nd as their latest order date. According to forecasts, more than ninety percent of parcels ordered then will arrive on time. If consumers order on December 3rd, the chance of delayed parcels is already much greater. The expectation is then that 83.1 percent of orders will still arrive in time for Sinterklaas. Last-minute orders on December 4th are quite risky, with only 50.9 percent likely to be delivered the next day.

For Christmas, it's wiser to order parcels somewhat further in advance. December 19th is the last day where more than 90 percent of parcels are likely to be under the Christmas tree on time. After this date, certainty drops quickly. If Dutch people order parcels on December 20th, for example, the expectation is that only just over three-quarters (78.4%) will be delivered before Christmas. Last-minute ordering is also not recommended here. Of purchases made on December 23rd, only 47.2 percent are expected to arrive on the doorstep on time.

Jeroen Gehlen, founder of Wuunder: "This is now the sixth year that thanks to the Parcel Radar, we can keep consumers, retailers, and logistics parties informed about what the peak period around the holidays does to parcel delivery. As every year, the expectation is that delays will occur especially around Black Friday, because much more is ordered then than on an average day. What could reduce parcel congestion during that period is delivery at a later time, when fulfillment and carriers are quiet. Many Black Friday purchases don't need to arrive within a few days, but can also be delivered in week 50 or week 1, for example. But those who want to order gifts for Sinterklaas or Christmas would do well to do so well in advance. The weekend just before Christmas can cause extra delays. So order on time, because after all, no one wants to stand empty-handed on Pakjesavond or under the Christmas tree."

The data is based on orders at Paazl and Wuunder and concerns domestic shipments in the Netherlands. The data is not based on returns and only concerns B2C shipments.