Transport costs 2027: what's rising and how to protect your margin
Carriers are announcing their new rates this autumn, and the increase isn't just about higher fuel prices.
Drivers (wage costs) are getting more expensive, so are vans, and more time is lost in traffic. That flows into what you pay your carrier per shipment, and ultimately into the shipping price your customer sees at checkout.
The three biggest cost drivers for parcel shipping
How steep is it? Panteia's annual cost report, commissioned by Dutch transport associations TLN and evofenedex, maps the costs of road transport. Rijkswaterstaat, the Dutch road authority, measures congestion on the motorways. Together they provide the three figures that weigh heaviest for parcel shippers:
| Delivery vans (last mile), excl. fuel | Driver wage costs | Congestion 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| +4.4% to +4.6% in 2027 | +4.85% in 2027 | 22.1 million kilometre-minutes, the worst on record |
Source: Panteia, commissioned by TLN and evofenedex (October 2026), for vans and wages. Rijkswaterstaat, Rapportage Rijkswegennet 2025, for congestion on the Dutch motorway network.
What are we seeing in the market?
So where exactly is the pressure? Most parcels travel the final stretch in a delivery van, and in the Netherlands those costs rose 5.2% to 5.4% in 2026, excluding fuel. Another 4.4% to 4.6% follows in 2027. Two years above 4% compound: what cost €100 in 2025 will cost around €110 by early 2028.
| Cost item (NL) | 2026 (vs. 2025) | Forecast 2027 (vs. 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Delivery van (last mile)* | +5.2% to +5.4% | +4.4% to +4.6% |
| Light distribution, parcel goods | +5.1% | n/a |
| Driver wage costs | +6.05% | +4.85% |
| Fuel | +33.5% | -9.4% (CPB forecast) |
*Excluding fuel. Source: Panteia, commissioned by TLN and evofenedex (October 2026).
Wages are the biggest driver. Fuel is expected to get cheaper in 2027, but wage costs don't go back down. And a van stuck in traffic delivers nothing while the driver still gets paid. A lower fuel surcharge only partly offsets higher base rates.
Transport costs are rising faster than inflation
Inflation is the usual benchmark for price increases, and many rate agreements are indexed to it every year: the CPI from Statistics Netherlands (CBS), or Eurostat's HICP for the euro area. But transport costs are rising faster, in the Netherlands and across Europe. The quarterly European Road Freight Rate Development Benchmark by IRU, Upply and Ti shows road freight rates climbing sharply in 2026, driven by cost rather than demand:
| Benchmark | Increase |
|---|---|
| Inflation Netherlands (CPI), September 2026 | +3.4% |
| Inflation euro area (HICP), September 2026 | +3.8% |
| Delivery van NL (last mile), 2026, excl. fuel | +5.2% to +5.4% |
| Driver wage costs NL, 2026 | +6.05% |
| European road freight contract rates, Q2 2026 | +15.2 index points year on year (to 148.0) |
Sources: CBS and Eurostat, flash estimates inflation September 2026 (2 October 2026). Panteia, commissioned by TLN and evofenedex (October 2026). IRU, Upply and Ti, European Road Freight Rate Development Benchmark Q2 2026 (August 2026).
If your shipping costs only rise in line with inflation, they lag behind what transport actually costs. That gap often comes back anyway, through higher surcharges or smaller discounts in the next rate round. Shipping from or to Germany, Belgium or France? The same pressure lands on your rates there, on top of national tolls and surcharges that differ per country. So don't budget your 2027 shipping costs on inflation alone, but on the all-in cost per carrier. More context in the European Road Freight Rate Development Benchmark and on our international shipping page.
Fuel surcharge and truck toll
| Cost item | What's changing? | Impact on your shipments |
|---|---|---|
| Fuel surcharge | Fuel rose 33.5% in 2026. The CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) expects fuel to be 9.4% cheaper in 2027. | The surcharge comes on top of the base rate and varies widely per carrier. |
| Dutch truck toll | Since 1 July 2026 for trucks over 3.5 tonnes. Rates rise 2.6% on 1 January 2027. | Vans up to 3.5 tonnes are exempt, but transport between sorting centres and pallet shipping are not. Carriers may pass the toll on. |
Current fuel surcharges per carrier are on our shipping cost comparison page. How sharply surcharges rose this spring is covered in Parcel Radar 9. Shipping pallets? Then the toll hits you directly, more on our pallet shipping page.
What carriers have announced for 2027
Panteia's figures are costs, not rates. What you pay in 2027 is set by each carrier. This is what they've published on their own websites so far (as of 10 October 2026):
| Carrier | 2027 announcement |
|---|---|
| DHL Express (Belgium) | Average +5.9% for Time Definite and Day Definite, from January 2027. A Demand Surcharge also applies to international shipments from 1 October 2026 to 5 February 2027. |
| Other carriers | We publish the info as soon as the carriers have announced their rate increase. |
An average increase is not your increase: that depends on your mix of services, weights and destinations.
National- and international parcel carriers
Carrier library
"But we have a discount, right?"
True, some retailers get (substantial) discounts on base rates and surcharges. At the same time, we increasingly hear that those discounts are under pressure and are being (partly) reduced. When costs rise and discounts shrink at the same time, the net impact is bigger than your contract suggests "on paper".
Why this matters right now
Differences between carriers are large, and new rates take effect on 1 January. So monitor your costs and surcharges actively, instead of reacting when the invoice arrives. This matters even more if you:
- (partly) pass shipping costs on to consumers;
- offer "free shipping from" a minimum order value;
- have high volume in specific regions, where toll and routing have extra impact;
- use multiple carriers with widely differing rates.
What does a cost increase do to your margin?
Calculate what you keep per order, and what 10% higher transport costs do to that.
| Example 1: small parcel | Example 2: large or heavy parcel | |
|---|---|---|
| Sale price | €50 | €50 |
| Gross margin (20%) | €10 | €10 |
| Current transport cost | €5 | €30 |
| +10% transport cost | +€0.50 | +€3.00 |
| Margin after increase | €9.50 (-5%) | €7.00 (-30%) |
The larger or heavier the shipment, the harder an increase hits your margin. So check whether your checkout prices still match your current costs, especially if you haven't adjusted them in a while.
Pick the best carrier per shipment: with preconfigured or your own rates
When carriers adjust their rates on 1 January, the cheapest carrier on a route shifts too. The cheapest one in 2026 won't automatically be the cheapest in 2027. Wuunder automatically compares all available carriers per shipment, without you having to maintain shipping rules.
| Preconfigured rates | Your own rates with the carrier |
|---|---|
| No personal rates? Then you ship right away using the carriers' standard rates, transit times and services, preconfigured in the carrier library: 120,000+ services, including virtually all surcharges. No rate tables to enter or maintain. | Have personal transport rates, agreed directly with a carrier? Then you connect those rates and agreements in Wuunder. Contact us and we'll discuss the options for your situation. |
Either way, you see per shipment which carrier is the most cost-effective, even as rates and surcharges change in 2027. Wuunder only invoices the software, never the transport. More on how that works on our shipping cost comparison page.
PuzzlPack: save on packaging and on surcharges
A parcel that's just too large or too heavy gets an extra handling or oversize surcharge. And a box that's too big costs more packaging material and more space in the van. PuzzlPack prevents that per order:
- Smallest box: based on the dimensions and weight of each product, PuzzlPack picks the smallest, most cost-effective packaging.
- Fewer surcharges: PuzzlPack calculates every shipping combination. Sometimes two smaller boxes within specs are cheaper than one large box with a surcharge.
- Parcel or pallet: for large orders, PuzzlPack calculates whether multi-colli or pallet shipping is cheaper.
Two more ways to protect your margin
| Audit your invoices | Offer more delivery options |
|---|---|
| Wuunder data shows 2% to 5% of carrier invoices contain errors. With rates and surcharges rising, auditing every invoice pays off. | Show parcelshops and lockers in your checkout. Carriers offer discounts or better rates on those deliveries. |
Read more about carrier invoice auditing and the delivery options you can show with Wuunder Checkout.
GreenChoice: lower costs in your warehouse and with carriers, higher revenue
The costs rising fastest are wages and time on the road, and they hit hardest when every parcel leaves the warehouse at once. With GreenChoice, your customer picks a sustainable delivery day at checkout, so orders spread across the week instead of piling up after the weekend.
| In your warehouse | With your carriers | In your revenue |
|---|---|---|
| The Monday peak flattens: up to 30% lower warehouse peak (Wuunder data). Fewer extra hands needed in busy weeks, right when wage costs are rising. | Bundled delivery means fuller vans: according to research by the University of Groningen, 20% fewer delivery vans on the road. GreenChoice can also defer delivery until after a peak or surcharge period, optionally with a discount. | Neleman saw +30% conversion after activating GreenChoice at checkout. At Soxs.co, up to 88% of customers chose the green delivery day. |
Read how Neleman uses GreenChoice, and explore the University of Groningen research: the field experiment in the Soxs.co checkout and the order-spreading study.
Ready to analyse your shipping costs together?
In 15 minutes, we'll walk through your current transport costs per carrier together and show you where you could save.
Q: How much will transport costs rise in 2027?
A: Panteia expects last-mile delivery van costs in the Netherlands to rise 4.4% to 4.6%, excluding fuel. What you pay depends on each carrier's rates, which you can compare per shipment via shipping cost comparison.
Q: Why are parcels getting more expensive when fuel gets cheaper?
A: Because wages are the biggest driver: +6.05% in 2026 and +4.85% in 2027. Lower fuel prices only partly offset that.
Q: Does the Dutch truck toll apply to parcel delivery?
A: Not to vans up to 3.5 tonnes, but it does apply to trucks between sorting centres and to pallet shipping. Carriers may pass those costs on.
Q: How does a sustainable delivery day help with rising shipping costs?
A: With GreenChoice you spread orders across the week: up to 30% lower warehouse peak and fuller vans for your carrier. Neleman also saw +30% conversion.
Q: Does automatic carrier comparison work with my webshop or WMS?
A: Yes. Wuunder connects with platforms such as Shopify Plus, Shopware, Magento and WooCommerce. Your WMS or ERP plugs in via the API, so every order is checked against all carriers right away.
Sources: Panteia, commissioned by TLN and evofenedex, Kostenontwikkelingen in het wegvervoer 2026-2027 (October 2026). Congestion: Rijkswaterstaat, Rapportage Rijkswegennet 2025 (April 2026). Inflation: CBS flash estimate September 2026; Eurostat flash estimate September 2026. European freight rates: IRU, Upply and Ti, European Road Freight Rate Development Benchmark Q2 2026. Rate announcements: the respective carriers' websites, accessed 10 October 2026.